Jupiter Launches Prediction Market with Kalshi-powered Micro-Bets

22/10/2025 admin

Key Takeaways:

Jupiter introduces its first native prediction market in beta, built on regulated market information on Kalshi with the F1 Mexico Grand Prix bets.
Micro-betting is competitive with Kalshi and Polymarket in the battle to control it with the latter being the most active in volume and retail integration.
The markets that are about to shoot up, the prediction market that is likely to reach $3.5B in revenue by 2026 as short-term, real-life event betting takes off.

Jupiter is a high stakes game and one of the most active Solana based DEX to have ventured into the prediction game. Its new beta-prediction market, fuelled by Kalshi, is a strategic change of going to live micro-betting on real-time events, beginning with Formula 1.

Jupiter’s Bold Bet on On-Chain Predictions

Jupiter is not just another property of the DEX that entails the entry of prediction markets but a calculated market entry into a fast-growing and booming market. The beta launch introduces a single prediction pair: “Who will win the Mexico Grand Prix?”. It is now possible to make a direct speculation on the result and buy and sell tokens of “Yes” or “No” using the Kalshi liquidity and data platform.

Powered by Kalshi’s Regulated Infrastructure

In a bid to provide its new feature, Jupiter uses its internal market data through Kalshi which is regulated by CFTC. In this partnership, Jupiter would benefit since it would be in a position to provide fully regulatory real-life event markets without a regulation, complex back-end.

The opportunity to watch the races betting on such a racer can also be used in Mexico Grand Prix market. Prices and odds are becoming dynamic where other market players are venturing into the market. The crowd mood is reflected on the prices in real-time, and offers real-time trading experience in short-duration events.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Prediction Markets Domination

The Two Giants of On-Chain Betting

This merger between Jupiter and Kalshi is a merger to an already existing flaming competition between Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest prediction space brokers. They are both vying to control a market that will be contributing up to $1B dollars in revenue in 2021 and then to $3.5B in 2026 and a good share of micro-bets, which are determined in minutes.

According to Dune Analytics, Kalshi controls volume and open interest and occupies 70% of the market share in notional volume. It enjoys the advantage of being integrated with Robinhood and more control over the mechanics of resolution. Polymarket, nevertheless, is still popular in political and crypto-related events and markets in non-sports.

The Battlefield of Retail Traders

The competitors of the two platforms are retail traders. Kalshi is captivating with KOLs and formal offers, Polymarket is counting on the first-mover advantage and word of mouth.

The level of competition increased due to recent integrations:

Polymarket collaborates with MetaMask and will allow Solana, which implies that the stablecoins do not have to be bridged.
Kalshi is however distressed by the fact that he has limited access to the U.S. audience.

The retail demand is growing at an unheard of rate but controversies exist on resolutions. A loss of $2.000 due to a poor understanding of a misspoken word by Kalshi is one of the examples of a viral case that tints the concept of transparency.

Micro-Betting Might be Crypto’s Next Billion-Dollar Vertical

The predictive platforms are in the competition of micro-betting, event betting and short-term betting with immediate results. This is because such fast-moving markets are attractive to crypto-native customers interested in receiving quick payoffs.

This type of a model addresses a transparent character of blockchain that is real-time. It is verifiable, trusting and all the trades are on-chain and can never be modified.

Jupiter markets permit:

The token live trading on the basis of results.
Price adjustment on an emotional basis.
Instant reward when the right response is made (reward of $1 per “Yes” ticket)

Kalshi and Polymarket are making 15-minute crypto, sport and political predictions. Jupiter comprises cheaper prices, faster transactions, and Solana access.

Prediction Market Stats

According to DeFi Llama:

The total value locked (TVL) on various prediction platforms: $241.9M.
Past 7 days fees: $422,297
Revenue generated: $396,466

Polymarket has the largest TVL of $215.55M, then Gnosis Protocol v1 (7.45M) and Football.Fun (5.09M).

However, the shift in user preferences can be signaled by the decision Jupiter makes. Prediction markets Solana will be able to supplant the existing market giants, especially as micro-bets become mainstream.

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