Is BTC price about to fill a $78K Bitcoin futures gap?
Bitcoin may finally reach a key downside target from last year as BTC/USD edges ever closer to old all-time highs.
In fresh X analysis on Feb. 27, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged an incoming “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets.
Battle of the Bitcoin futures gaps begins
Bitcoin (BTC) hit new multimonth lows around $82,160 into the Feb. 26 daily close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed, and subsequently rebounded by about 5%.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Despite this, fears remain over where the market may put in its next local bottom, thanks to a broad liquidity wipeout and lack of buyer conviction.
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows dispersed bid liquidity around $80,000, which pales in comparison to the wall of asks up to $90,000.
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
For Rekt Capital, however, there are two easy targets on the horizon.
Bitcoin has created a sizeable CME gap both to the upside and downside and if history is a guide, price should eventually “fill” both levels.
“Bitcoin is getting closer to filling the CME Gap that created between $78000 and ~$80700 in November 2024,” the analysis reported.
“On this retrace however, Bitcoin has developed a brand new CME Gap between ~$92700 and ~$94000.”
CME Group Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Rekt Capital noted that the upside gap matches the lows of what was until this week a three-month-long trading range.
“This offers some confluence to the idea of price revisiting $93500 at some point in the future as part of a post-breakdown relief rally,” he concluded, referencing another target from the day prior.
“Especially since Bitcoin has filled almost every CME Gap that formed since mid-March 2024 thus far.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital?X
Bitcoin reaches multiple “potential reversal points”
Some markers are already calling for an enduring reversal to take place.
Related: Bitcoin enters ‘technical bear market’ as BTC price drops 20% from all-time high
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit multi-year lows of just 10/100 this week, surpassing the level of “extreme fear” that accompanied the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
Analyzing short-term holder (STH) behavior, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, revealed the aftermath of panic selling.
Adler used the STH market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which divides the BTC price by the cost basis of the STH investor cohort.
“The STH MVRV (155-day) metric has periodically dropped below one, indicating periods of short-term undervaluation and potential reversal points,” he told X followers.
“The current values have once again approached the lower levels.”
Bitcoin STH-MVRV chart. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
