Historical cycle data suggests Bitcoin has left the ‘danger zone’ — Analyst
Bitcoin (BTC) may have escaped the post-halving “danger zone” — and is now headed for reaccumulation, according to a crypto analyst citing historical data.
On May 13, crypto market analyst “Rekt Capital” posted an update to his Bitcoin market cycle chart on X declaring that the “danger zone” when the asset corrects after the halving event is now over.
Bitcoin is celebrating with a “good bounce from the re-accumulation range low support,” he added.
The periods of pre and post-halving “danger zones” have occurred in previous market cycles when the asset retreats on either side of a halving event.
In this cycle, BTC fell 23% from its peak price in mid-March to $56,800 on May 1 marking the potential bottom of the post-halving danger zone period.
The analyst added that if $56,000 was not the bottom, “then this current pullback will have officially equaled the longest retrace in this cycle at 63 days.”
However, history suggests that this current pullback ended at $56,000 and 47 days, he opined.
BTC has now recovered to trade back above $63,000 at the time of writing, supporting the return to the re-accumulation zone analysis.
However, historical cycle movements aren’t always indicative of future ones, and further pullbacks during the period of sideways chop that often follows the halving could still be on the cards.
The analyst, however, was confident that current support levels would hold.
“Bitcoin is showing early-stage signs of slowing down in its sell-side momentum, slowly developing a curl against the ~$60,000 support,”
This level needs to hold as it has been doing so far for it to eventually lift up again which could result in a move back to $68,000, he added.
Related: Bitcoin ‘as strong as ever’ with record high 200-day moving average
Meanwhile, in a May 13 post to X, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal said “Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle,” with crypto performing particularly well in what he termed a “banana zone” in the latter half of the year when prices of these high risk assets surge.
Earlier this month, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes concurred that a period of sideways trading and accumulation is likely to occur before markets start moving again later this year.
He also cited an injection of liquidity from Federal Reserve monetary policy which could make its way into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
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